Thursday, October 14, 2004

CNN Spins Some More

CNN was again crowing about John Kerry's supposed debate victory over George Bush. A variety of talking heads were using phrases such as: Kerry is 3 for 3, Kerry gets a hat trick, John Kerry won a clear victory, etc.

The authority that they are quoting is a "snap poll" that gives Kerry the edge 52% over Bush's 38%. (The EdWonk assumes that the other 10% couldn't make up their minds.) What is lacking is any explanation that went into the development of such a poll.

"The spin thing is something that campaigns have to do," so says CNNs Aaron Brown. In a rare television interview, legendary Republican operative Karl Rove (naturally) told Brown that Bush gave a "Commanding performance."

Rove rightly questioned the accuracy of instant polling; they are notoriously inaccurate in the long run.

While the EdWonk would not say that President Bush gave a commanding performance, he does believe that Bush won the strategic victory by denying Kerry a decisive win. In other words, Bush wins by not losing.

And that is what will count on Election Night.