Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Some Reasons Why Bush Will Win

Four More Years
In six days, the people will finish casting their ballots for the next President of the United States. And as was stated earlier, there will be much litigation, charges of fraud, gnashing of teeth, tearing of hair, and maybe even a little garden variety brutality. But when the dust settles, we here at The Education Wonks are convinced that George Bush will be awarded another four-year term.

We think that some of the contributing factors behind George Bush's successful campaign are the following: (in no particular order of importance)

  • George Bush is excellent at appearing the part of everyman. When he stumbles (or mumbles) thorough an answer, (as at a debate) or makes a verbal mis-step,(as in a rare press-conference) the many people sympathize with Bush. They do this because in Bush, they see themselves up there on stage.
  • Bush's allies (the Swiftboat Vets) did an excellent job of impeaching Kerry's one strength, his record of combat service in Vietnam. By making Kerry's record the issue, it diverted any full-scale attack on George Bush's own Vietnam-era actions.
  • The "Rathergate" escapade tended to insulate Bush even further from "frontal attacks" by Kerry on Bush's Air National Guard service.
  • The First Lady has proven to be a definite asset to Bush's re-election effort. This is easily demonstrated when Laura Bush is compared with Teresa Heinz-Kerry, who many believe (including us) has been a serious liability to the Kerry campaign. Ms. Bush provides an element of refinement and "class" which is an effective complement to Bush's folksy "down home" style.
  • Kerry's supporters are concentrated in a few traditionally liberal strongholds. (the Pacific coast, New York, New England) Bush's support is both broad and relatively deep. In the Electoral College (which is the only vote that matters) Bush continues to enjoy a definite advantage going into the last week.
  • Bush's various operatives have very carefully kept to their "talking-points" and have stayed on message. Whatever one may think of Karl Rove, he has proven (once again) to be the superlative strategic planner.
  • The Republican Party continues to be very unified. There will be very few Republicans "breaking ranks" to vote for Kerry.
  • Ralph Nader will "bleed off" a sufficient number of votes (from Kerry) to make a difference in certain Battleground States.
  • People simply like George Bush, even if they disagree with some of his policies.

George Bush has run a very effective campaign. If he wins, (which we believe he will) Bush will be the first President ever re-elected that has lost the popular vote for his first term. Because of the Iraq War, the economy, and the deficit, Bush should be a supremely vulnerable incumbent.

It is Bush's good fortune that the Democrats nominated what (many believe) is the weakest candidate (and certainly the most liberal) since George McGovern in 1972. The Democratic High Command will "rue the day" that they continued to allow the liberal states of Iowa and New Hampshire to practically choose the party's standard bearer every four years.